Time away

14 days without twitter. Without newspapers. Without sky sports news. Without contacts. Without any sort of information at all concerning North East Football.

It was frustrating for about 48 hours. But then I started to see the value of some time away. Nothing but sunshine, all inclusive booze and a welcome chance to switch off the football engine and enjoy some time with my family.

And apart from the dicky tummy, I've loved it. It's cleared my head and recharged my batteries, which I now realise were in urgent need of recharging.

And the best thing is I'm back just in time for the start of the premier league season. Just in time to line up for the annual prediction parade.

While I've been enjoying my time away, I've been lying on sun beds and wondering how Sunderland and Newcastle United have spent their time away, and whether it's been time well spent.

The Magpies have certainly been busy. Busy selling one of their most influential players almost entirely for the sake of making a point. Busy chasing their other most influential player out of the door by all means available. Busy going on a glamourous but faintly disastrous tour of the USA. Busy pointing out that the return of two injured players was like having two extra new signings (a point that's been sledgehammered home at every opportunity) and busy dangerously over-hyping one of those players before he's really proved anything.

So, busy in some ways. But not especially busy in others. Not especially busy spending the now-mythical Andy Carroll money. So far 5 new players have arrived, although not at great expense, and only 4 are likely to figure in the first team. And, well, those 4 better be good otherwise Newcastle United's time away starts to look like an exercise in weakening rather than strengthening. Certainly team spirit can't have been strengthened by the twitterings of Joey Barton and (briefly) Jose Enrique.

But here's the thing, during my time away I read the book "Moneyball" and I can't help wondering if Mike Ashley read it on his holidays. Very briefly, the book is about how the Oakland A's, one of the poorest teams in baseball, managed to compete with the likes of the New York Yankees, who are the Manchester United of baseball. They did it by changing the way they scouted players and using detailed statistics to see qualities that others had missed. This gave them a group of rough diamonds, who didn't need massive wages, that the big clubs had never bothered with. Oakland had their team, the rough diamonds had the chance no one else was prepared to give them and if they went on to become stars, the A's turned a profit by letting them leave and replacing them with younger, rougher diamonds. There were no star names on big money because they couldn't afford them and they didn't fit the game plan anyway. Give or take the odd cultural sporting difference, that's Ashley's Newcastle United. I suppose it might work, but when it comes to predictions, you're whistling in the wind.

They might finish 7th if the Moneyball thing works. They might finish 20th if it doesn't. So there you are, I'm saying Newcastle will finish somewhere between 7th and 20th.

Sunderland have been busy during their time away. Absurdly busy for about a fortnight when they seemed to buy a player every half hour. This was no surprise. For one thing, Steve Bruce is actually more 'Arry than 'Arry when it comes to the transfer market. Also, he had no choice. The springtime collapse revealed some glaring weaknesses in his squad, injuries and mercenaries not withstanding. So during his time away Steve Bruce has set about addressing those weaknesses. The sad, but inevitable, departure of Jordan Henderson gave him room for manoeuvre and he's tried to play the market and manage the wage bill cleverly. It looks like good business, but the proof is in the pudding. They've been pretty average during pre-season (although that doesn't count for much) and they'll need to hit the ground running when the real stuff starts because their opening month is full of potential pitfalls.

But it's a little easier to predict Sunderland under Steve Bruce. Steady progress is his brief. That's what he's delivered so far and I see no reason to expect anything different this time. 7th is the glass ceiling in my opinion, but that would represent a big step and I think 8th or 9th is more realistic this year.

Hand on heart I can't see too much joy in the cups. Both Newcastle and Sunderland could afford to be a bit more serious about the knockouts and I can see improvements for both. But competition will be fierce, because Chelsea, Manchester City and especially Arsenal can't afford to leave empty-handed this season.

So our time away is over. We're back to reality and there's an early Derby to concentrate our hearts and minds. Whether you spent your time away relaxing, or rebuilding, or arguing amongst yourselves, I hope you enjoyed it. I hope it proves worthwhile.