Goodbye predictable, hello volatile

When will this fog clear ? It's the middle of October and I can't see the shapes on the horizon. It's exciting, but also a little scary. Goodbye predictable, hello volatile. Where are the certainties ? Where are the reliably good and the regularly awful ? Apart from the matter of who’s going to win the premier league title, which already appears screamingly obvious (Chelsea), it's suddenly a lot harder to second guess where this thing's going. Which certainly makes a change. By now you can usually pick out at least one nailed-on certainty for premier league relegation. The resoundingly hopeless newcomers or the crumbling institutions heading for financial armageddon. But the usual suspects are suddenly lurking in the shadows. Liverpool are this year's Portsmouth, no one's putting their hand up to be this year's Burnley and so the landscape is shrounded in uncertainty. The promoted sides are all doing rather nicely in their own different ways and so the soft, established underbelly of the Premier League is looking nervously over it's collective shoulder. Someone's got to go, and if you can't even rely on Blackpool then who can you rely on ? Wake up and smell the risk and reward, because someone's going to do very badly out of this and someone's going to do very well.

It could be our lot, for better or worse.

Sunderland have done good business so far despite a brutal fixture list. But it's all very well standing up to the heavyweights, the Black Cats need to prove they can knock out the lightweights. Bossing Man United around is lovely, but why can't the same group of players take the initiative against West Ham ? Or Wigan ? Or West Brom ? Answer that question and Steve Bruce will have cracked it. But it's a two part question, because first he has to unravel his tactical puzzle. The players clearly enjoy the whole 4-5-1 thing, but sometime soon Bruce has to work out how to fit his record signing into the starting line-up. Clubs like Sunderland don't pay the thick end of 15 million for an impact substitute, so Gyan's going to have to play. 3 at the back anyone ?

Newcastle are, of course, the poster boys for the rollercoaster ride and it's reassuring that the Magpies have been gloriously unpredictable. They've basically won the hard ones and lost the easy ones. Sometimes it's seemed ridiculous that they were ever relegated in the first place, sometimes they look like nervous newcomers who don't know when to stick and when to twist. Like the neighbours, they'll be doing some thinking about tactics. The tried and tested 4-4-1-1 is working brilliantly away from home, but they've got bogged down at St James Park. Chris Hughton could change the system, or just switch players around within the same system, but he knows they can’t afford to lose too many home games. He had a tactical ace up his sleeve, but sadly it's a card he might never get to play. Hatem Ben Arfa was a mysterious little sprite who was all set to become the new darling of the Gallowgate. But not now. Think what you like about the circumstances in which the Frenchman's leg was broken, but basically it was just a crying shame. Ben Arfa may still represent the future, but it's the here and now that matters for Newcastle United.

Life's just as unpredictable in the Football League. Especially at Middlesbrough, who are currently searching for reasons to explain their failure to launch. The optimism of August has been replaced by the uncertainty of October and because they were scorching hot pre-season favourites, every bad result seems a whole lot worse. I have no explanations for this, except to say that it's more evidence of the decline of Scottish Football. But that's just a cheap shot and it doesn't really explain anything. Something's up. Something's wrong and Gordon Strachan needs to locate the problem and solve it. Quickly. Crowds are drifting away, the promotion race is taking place somewhere else and the manager's position is coming under mild scrutiny. He's not bothered about that of course, because Mr Strachan genuinely doesn't care what the media thinks. But at the moment most of us think his team should be doing better, and I bet he agrees with us.

Life's deliciously unpredictable over in Cumbria where Carlisle are starring in their very own Ugly Duckling story. The unheralded Blues are threatening to blossom into a beautiful swan. I saw them dismantle Hartlepool the other week and they were really, really good. Greg Abbott rolled the dice in the summer and freshened up the squad. He's also freshened up the way they play and they've even coped with the departure of Old Father Time (Ian Harte). The table says they're promotion contenders - the manager urges caution at this stage. But a good start has put steam in their strides, they've got some serious fans behind them and a land of opportunity opening up in front of them.

Hartlepool need to make their mind up, about a lot of things. For a start they've had a Caretaker Manager for too long now. All a caretaker can really do is keep things ticking over. Mick Wadsworth's been doing a fairly decent job of that and if he's their man then why don't the club just give him the proper job title and let him get on with it ? It's probably going to be a bit of an uphill struggle this year, but there's no need for them to get relegated, as long as the owners decide where they want to go and who they want to get them there.

So when WILL the fog clear ? I'm not sure, but I'll hazard a guess that it might happen round about four o'clock on Halloween Afternoon as Newcastle United and Sunderland return to the dressing rooms at St James Park. Trick or treat ? We'll see.