Maybe. Or maybe next year.

The glory of August for the football fan is the limitless possibility. The storylines are unwritten and everyone's glass is, or at least should be, half full. To me, the glass is definitely half full at Middlesbrough, slightly more than half full at Carlisle and edging towards three quarters full at Hartlepool. I'm just not sure anyone's glass is full enough to satisfy their thirst for a happy ending.

It's ironic that Juninho was back in town recently, to serve as a reminder of the good old days at Middlesbrough. The years when money was no object and a small town in Europe lifted a trophy and reached for the stars. It's ironic because a lot's changed since then. They're entering their 3rd year of exile from the top flight and the parachute won't open so far his time. Corners will be cut and new arrivals will be begged, borrowed or stolen rather than lavished with huge wages and signing on fees. But while the recent past no longer provides a useful reference point, a trip 25 years down memory lane is more instructive. It's the spirit of 86 that's needed now. That famous and much-loved team that took a football club from the brink of liquidation to promotion in the blink of an eye. That's the blueprint for the new austerity years at the Riverside. Of course Tony Mowbray provides the bridge between the two eras, and of course it would be just perfect for Mogga to fly Boro to the moon. Certainly they closed last season in dazzling form, and so far the squad is still in pretty good shape. But until the window closes they're vulnerable, and then there's the opposition, a subject I'll return to later.

My concern for Carlisle is basically to do with glass ceilings and where, precisely, theirs is located. Last season they finished mid-table in league one and won the JPT at Wembley. That represented a good years work. It also presents a big challenge for Greg Abbott and his staff, because now they're expected to do better. But how much better can they do ? The club is well run and on a sound financial footing after back to back Wembley trips, but that doesn't mean they can go toe to toe with the Sheffield clubs or Huddersfield in the transfer market. They can compete, but they need absolutely everything to fall in their favour in terms of signings, injuries, momentum and good luck. That's a lot to ask, and the highs of last season leave them with an awfully big act to follow.

I reckon Hartlepool smashed through their glass ceiling years ago. Every season they survive at this level is a minor miracle. But it also begs the question of whether they dare to dream of going higher. Well, whisper it quietly, but this might be their window of opportunity. #areyoucomingtopools was one of the hashtag highs of the summer. Hartlepool's innovative season ticket scheme proved to be a massive success and as a result they find themselves in a unique situation. Little old Pools will have a formidable home crowd behind them next season, which could generate the momentum for something unlikely and something wonderful. And why not, with Nobby Solano sat in the middle conducting the orchestra ?

But then we come back to the question of the opposition. This is where my glass suddenly dips from half full to half empty. In league one, can Carlisle and Hartlepool really live with the Sheffields ? Can they keep up with Clarkie's Huddersfield ? Preston ? And those are just the obvious ones. It's even worse for Boro up in the championship. Sven's Leicester are the big spenders. Big Sam and Big Kev Nolan will get the Hammers moving. Steve McClaren might just remind the Teesside public what a good manager he is over at Forest. Olly's Blackpool look keen to prove that whole Premier League thing wasn't a fluke. Chris Hughton might repeat his Magpie Miracle at Birmingham and the usual suspects like Burnley, Reading and Cardiff won't be far away. I've got a sneaking fancy for Brighton in their new stadium as well.

It's a jungle out there in the football league this season and I'm not 100% convinced our boys can live with the big beasts.

But I haven't given up hope. There's always a few tales of the unexpected and remember, it's still August. The storylines haven't been written yet and the lush, green, summer pitches are still rich with possibility.

Happy Endings

Everyone loves a happy ending. They were there, last season, if you looked carefully enough. Some were obvious, like Darlington and their FA Trophy, or Carlisle and their Johnstone's Paint Pot. Some were more subtle, like Tony Mowbray's gradual reawakening of Middlesbrough and Hartlepool's refusal to get drawn into a relegation battle. But everyone had something to look back on with satisfaction. Sunderland's happy ending came in the form of a top ten finish. Of course they went all round the houses to get there, but Steve Bruce will tell you ultimately that doesn't matter. They found unlikely heroes (Phil Bardsley) and there were pantomime villains (dastardly Darren Bent) and they finally found what they were looking for in the dying moments of the season. The great irony of course was that the Black Cats got the top ten finish that looked for all the world as if it was destined for Newcastle. But the Magpies needn't dwell on the denouement. Their happy ending was much more straightforward and was achieved with time to spare. They reestablished themselves as a premier league club. They were never dragged into the dogfight and, well, they'll always have Halloween. The sale of Andy Carroll was, sadly, inevitable, while the departure of Chris Hughton and the arrival of Alan Pardew remains a mysterious footnote. Everyone must make up their own mind as to whether they've got the right man, or whether they got rid of the right man. Boro HAVE got the right man. That's their happy ending. They kissed a frog, but they found their prince. Strachan was the sickness. Mowbray is their home-grown cure. A managerial change also defined Hartlepool's campaign. Chris Turner, who'd done so much at Victoria Park, finally got tired of the struggle. Mick Wadsworth became a sort of permanent caretaker and while mid-table mediocrity might not seem like the happiest of endings, it was actually a splendid achievement. Carlisle had another season of steady improvement under Greg Abbott and Peter Murphy's Wembley winner was Boy's Own stuff. Mark Cooper managed to sort out the unholy mess he inherited at Darlington and ended up with a Trophy for good measure. Gateshead were much-improved in their first modern season as a full time football club and Gary Mills arrived in time to steady the ship at York. So there you are. Everyone ended up smiling. Everyone loves a happy ending. True, we went through a lot of shit to get there, but what's life without little drama ?

Springtime stream of consciousness

What is it about the spring ? Where are the green shoots of recovery in North East football ? Why are we crap when the daffodils are out ? I had a rubbish start to spring, but I've cheered up since then. It was partly because some of it was in February and I don’t believe anyone’s really happy in February. It's a sneaky month. Everyone guards against a post-Christmas lull in January, but no one sees it coming when it hits in February. But what’s Sunderland’s excuse ? I know, Darren bloody Bent. Well, yes with hindsight @DB11TT (or @DB39TT or whatever he is now) has apparently knackered Sunderland’s season with his decision to take the money on offer down the road. But really, can we just lump all the blame onto the gun for hire ? He had, after all, been decidedly moderate during the first half of the season and it was screamingly obvious that his nose was well out of joint once Gyan wafted in with a sprinkling of super-stardust. And are Black Cats fans really going to claim that paying 5 million quid for a thirty-something striker from Stoke City with dodgy knees was going to be good use of the transfer pot ? No. No. No. It’s just the latest dose of Seasonal Affective Disorder on Wearside, because they’ve got a lot of previous when it comes to crap springs. They were rubbish around this time last year as well. Peter Reid’s best team around the turn of the century twice fell away after Christmas when Europe was in their grasp. That’s one of the main conundrums for Steve Bruce to unpick next season – how to keep going till the finishing line. And by the way, I’m prone to knee jerk reactions as much as the next man, but “Bruce out” on the phone-ins ? Really ? I mean REALLY ? Please, please get a grip. He’s the right man in the right place, at the right time and it’s up to him to kick on and make best use of the Stadium of Light opportunities. And opportunity knocks. I was lucky enough to have a couple of inside peeks at Sunderland over the last month or two – I did one of Niall Quinn’s talk-ins and then I happened to find myself in the boardroom after the Liverpool match – and these are serious, passionate, intelligent people with a game plan. So stick with it. Yes, this season’s a bit goosed now, but next season might be very good indeed. Newcastle haven’t been AS bad during the spring but they haven’t been wearing their daffodils with pride either. Like Sunderland, there are mitigating cirumstances (Andy, wherefore art thou Andy ?), but unlike Sunderland, the Magpies have done a decent job of rolling with the punches. It’s been patchy and volatile, but the Wolves win gets them just about over the top and anyone who complains too loudly at Newcastle this season needs to take a long hard look at the last 24 months, and the finances, then just pipe down and realise that the whole point of this season in the premier league was to make sure that next season is in the premier league as well. And there have been lovely little bonuses along the way. Leon Best – who saw that coming ? Joey Barton and Kevin Nolan – the Black and White midfield mafia of the premier league. Chieck Tiote – pound-for-pound up there with Javier Hernandez as the best signing of the season. So don’t complain. Complaining is just a waste of your life. Middlesbrough have quite enjoyed springtime. It was certainly better than the long, hard, grim winter and it was a country mile better than the dismal, depressing resource-sapping summer and autumn that came beforehand. I really, really like Tony Mowbray. He’s honest, he’s got a Boro-red heart and he understands that the manager’s job no longer comes with a silver spoon and an open chequebook. Yes, the club is on shifting, sinking sands financially, because the parachute won’t open so far next season, but they’ve got the right man at the helm. They’re staying up and that’s no small achievement considering the total wreckage Mowbray found when he arrived. Don’t dwell on the manager’s tone too much either. He’s got a quiet, almost downbeat tone about him during his press conferences. But that’s just the way he is. He’s very considered and if you listen to what he’s saying, it always makes sense. Springtime’s been OK for Hartlepool, but the main point there is that “OK” was all it needed to be, because they’d done more than enough beforehand to stay in League One, which was above and beyond what most people were expecting. Carlisle, god bless them, have only gone and won at Wembley in the springtime, when the sun was shining and the ghosts were laid to rest. Peter Murphy’s Daddy Cool story was brilliant and I was so pleased for all of them. The fans, the players, the management, the directors and Andy the kitman-cum-mediaman. They got a good kicking from Southampton 12 months ago and they learned from that and this was catharsis on a grand scale for everyone involved. And spring’s been brilliant for the non-league boys, with Darlo getting to Wembley and Gateshead running them close and Whitley Bay booking their inevitable return ticket for a day out beneath the arch. So I suppose spring’s not been all bad, but I did have a week at work where I felt more conflicted and more unsettled than I ever have during my 139 years in the job. It was nothing to do with my employers or my employment, it was to do with mechanics and ethics and journalistic method, and I will never, ever say anything more about that. Hopefully it’s over and hopefully the sun will keep shining and I’ll cover two more Wembley wins and Newcastle and even SAD-suffering Sunderland will finish with a flourish.

Goodbye predictable, hello volatile

When will this fog clear ? It's the middle of October and I can't see the shapes on the horizon. It's exciting, but also a little scary. Goodbye predictable, hello volatile. Where are the certainties ? Where are the reliably good and the regularly awful ? Apart from the matter of who’s going to win the premier league title, which already appears screamingly obvious (Chelsea), it's suddenly a lot harder to second guess where this thing's going. Which certainly makes a change. By now you can usually pick out at least one nailed-on certainty for premier league relegation. The resoundingly hopeless newcomers or the crumbling institutions heading for financial armageddon. But the usual suspects are suddenly lurking in the shadows. Liverpool are this year's Portsmouth, no one's putting their hand up to be this year's Burnley and so the landscape is shrounded in uncertainty. The promoted sides are all doing rather nicely in their own different ways and so the soft, established underbelly of the Premier League is looking nervously over it's collective shoulder. Someone's got to go, and if you can't even rely on Blackpool then who can you rely on ? Wake up and smell the risk and reward, because someone's going to do very badly out of this and someone's going to do very well.

It could be our lot, for better or worse.

Sunderland have done good business so far despite a brutal fixture list. But it's all very well standing up to the heavyweights, the Black Cats need to prove they can knock out the lightweights. Bossing Man United around is lovely, but why can't the same group of players take the initiative against West Ham ? Or Wigan ? Or West Brom ? Answer that question and Steve Bruce will have cracked it. But it's a two part question, because first he has to unravel his tactical puzzle. The players clearly enjoy the whole 4-5-1 thing, but sometime soon Bruce has to work out how to fit his record signing into the starting line-up. Clubs like Sunderland don't pay the thick end of 15 million for an impact substitute, so Gyan's going to have to play. 3 at the back anyone ?

Newcastle are, of course, the poster boys for the rollercoaster ride and it's reassuring that the Magpies have been gloriously unpredictable. They've basically won the hard ones and lost the easy ones. Sometimes it's seemed ridiculous that they were ever relegated in the first place, sometimes they look like nervous newcomers who don't know when to stick and when to twist. Like the neighbours, they'll be doing some thinking about tactics. The tried and tested 4-4-1-1 is working brilliantly away from home, but they've got bogged down at St James Park. Chris Hughton could change the system, or just switch players around within the same system, but he knows they can’t afford to lose too many home games. He had a tactical ace up his sleeve, but sadly it's a card he might never get to play. Hatem Ben Arfa was a mysterious little sprite who was all set to become the new darling of the Gallowgate. But not now. Think what you like about the circumstances in which the Frenchman's leg was broken, but basically it was just a crying shame. Ben Arfa may still represent the future, but it's the here and now that matters for Newcastle United.

Life's just as unpredictable in the Football League. Especially at Middlesbrough, who are currently searching for reasons to explain their failure to launch. The optimism of August has been replaced by the uncertainty of October and because they were scorching hot pre-season favourites, every bad result seems a whole lot worse. I have no explanations for this, except to say that it's more evidence of the decline of Scottish Football. But that's just a cheap shot and it doesn't really explain anything. Something's up. Something's wrong and Gordon Strachan needs to locate the problem and solve it. Quickly. Crowds are drifting away, the promotion race is taking place somewhere else and the manager's position is coming under mild scrutiny. He's not bothered about that of course, because Mr Strachan genuinely doesn't care what the media thinks. But at the moment most of us think his team should be doing better, and I bet he agrees with us.

Life's deliciously unpredictable over in Cumbria where Carlisle are starring in their very own Ugly Duckling story. The unheralded Blues are threatening to blossom into a beautiful swan. I saw them dismantle Hartlepool the other week and they were really, really good. Greg Abbott rolled the dice in the summer and freshened up the squad. He's also freshened up the way they play and they've even coped with the departure of Old Father Time (Ian Harte). The table says they're promotion contenders - the manager urges caution at this stage. But a good start has put steam in their strides, they've got some serious fans behind them and a land of opportunity opening up in front of them.

Hartlepool need to make their mind up, about a lot of things. For a start they've had a Caretaker Manager for too long now. All a caretaker can really do is keep things ticking over. Mick Wadsworth's been doing a fairly decent job of that and if he's their man then why don't the club just give him the proper job title and let him get on with it ? It's probably going to be a bit of an uphill struggle this year, but there's no need for them to get relegated, as long as the owners decide where they want to go and who they want to get them there.

So when WILL the fog clear ? I'm not sure, but I'll hazard a guess that it might happen round about four o'clock on Halloween Afternoon as Newcastle United and Sunderland return to the dressing rooms at St James Park. Trick or treat ? We'll see.

What do you think of it so far ?

It’s a fair enough question to ask and it’s a fair enough time to ask it as we padlock shut the transfer window, put away our unexpectedly new England shirt and prepare to resume battle on the home front this weekend. So then, how’s the North East and Cumbrian football season looking so far ?

NEWCASTLE UNITED: Exceeding expectations.

It stands to reason that one result doesn’t make a season. But sometimes it kind of does. Newcastle’s six goal annihilation of Villa certainly comes into that category. It was perfect in every way and breathed life into the idea that Newcastle’s strengths in the Championship will also prove to be strengths now they’re back in the premier league. St James Park looked every inch the fortress. Andy Carroll looked every inch the new Geordie number nine. Kevin Nolan looked every inch the wily old campaigner with speed of thought to compensate for any lack of speed on the ground. Newcastle looked every inch United. One result doesn’t make a season, but one giant-sized confidence boost can go a long way and some interesting and thoughtful business in the transfer window can only help. So far, so good.

SUNDERLAND: Coping with expectations.

The Black Cats start to the season could have been better, but it could also have been a lot worse. As they kicked off against Manchester City, they had one point from two games and no senior striker to partner Darren Bent. A couple of hours later they had 4 points after a thoroughly uplifting win over the Premier League’s nouveau riche and by close of business on August 31st they had, arguably, one of the most exciting and ambitious signings made by any English club this summer. Steve Bruce claimed at the end of last season that he was aiming for stability. That was a little red and white lie as it turns out. He’s made many, many changes again this summer and he will live or die by the success or failure of those alterations. The centre forward upgrade is the key. Cashing in on Kenwyne Jones and putting all the eggs in an Asamoah Gyan-shaped basket was a bold move. The Ghanaian could become a superstar, or he could become a cautionary tale of World Cup fools gold.

MIDDLESBROUGH: Absolutely not living up to expectations.

They were favourites to win the Championship before a ball was kicked, yet they’re 16th in the table with just the one laboured win after four games. They haven’t hit the ground running, in fact they’ve barely hit the ground at all. Gordon Strachan has assembled a grizzled cast of experienced campaigners - an Old Firm Dirty Dozen if you will – but so far the chemistry isn’t right. He’s got the marksmen, but no one to load the bullets. He’s got a strong spine, but it all gets a bit flabby down the sides. He’s also been very unlucky with injuries. But that luck will surely change and Strachan is more than capable of sorting out the chemistry problem. Middlesbrough had the players to win that division before a ball was kicked and they still do now. No one gets forever in football, but give it time.

CARLISLE UNITED: Exceeding expectations.

It was hard to judge quite what expectations were at Brunton Park, but Carlisle are definitely exceeding them. They’ve emerged from a summer of much change looking leaner, meaner and fit for purpose. A good start has given them belief and confidence. The new arrivals look better or at least as good as the men they’ve replaced. In Francois Zoko they have a player with cult-hero written all over him and in Greg Abbott they have a manager who is growing in stature all the time. Let’s not get carried away yet, because they’re in the pond with some very big fish this season and Ian Harte’s departure represents a big loss, but let’s give credit where it’s due and remain cautiously optimistic.

HARTLEPOOL UNITED: Living up to expectations. But not in a good way.

They were favourites to go down before a ball was kicked and despite a notable Carling Cup win and a brief dead-cat bounce, they’ve not really calmed the supporters fears. It’s hard to blame the players, who are doing OK, and who must have been aware of the unrest around the club long before Chris Turner held up his hands in frustration and walked away. It’s hard not to blame the owners, who offered Turner little or no encouragement in his attempts to upgrade a squad that only just survived last season. There’s an awful feeling of a business being run-down and mothballed. Mick Wadsworth knows the ropes at this level though, so he’s a capable caretaker who will probably get the full time job. He could yet make a silk purse out of this sow’s ear of a situation.