The Return of the Big Three

“Time’s up for the big three.” I said that on the telly on Friday 22nd May 2009. At least one of the North East’s heavyweight trio was going to be relegated on Survival Sunday. As it turned out we lost two and the big three became a big one. Now look, I know that to talk of big threes and big ones is to invite tribal fury telling me that Club X will always be bigger than Club Y no matter what division they’re in. But just for now, let’s put all that to one side. Our football hotbed was in danger of going into deep freeze. Thankfully, it’s thawed out a bit since then. Newcastle United did a thoroughly professional job of winning the Championship last season and so now we’re back up from a big one to a big two. My hunch is that in 12 months time, the big two will be back up to a big three. Here’s why.



1. MIDDLESBROUGH WILL WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP. Boro fans have had two rotten seasons to put up with. First there was the creeping pain of an inevitable relegation that they seemed powerless and almost reluctant to avoid. Then there was underachievement and reshuffle. But hopefully Boro fans will come to see these lean years as a necessary evil. A long road that will lead them back to better times. The McClaren era bled into the Southgate era and that whole cycle was coming to an end. Bringing in a pragmatic football man like Gordon Strachan was inviting fundamental change. That’s what’s happened and if we’re all honest, that’s what was needed. A new Middlesbrough will attack the nPower Championship this season. A tougher, more streetwise (more Scottish) Middlesbrough. They’ve beefed up the spine of the team with mature players and they’ve addressed the one big problem that gave Strachan sleepless nights from the moment he arrived – the forward line. Kris Boyd and Scott McDonald will score plenty of goals. Providing they can find some width from somewhere, Boro are worthy favourites to win this division, because they look strong and the rest of the teams look weak in comparison.
2. NEWCASTLE WILL NOT BE RELEGATED FROM THE PREMIER LEAGUE. Having proved they were far, far too good for the Championship, they have to prove they're good enough for the Premier League. Given what they achieved last season, and the manner in which they achieved it, let's go with the idea that the glass is half full. They showed guts. They showed personality and, as the character Jules said in the film Pulp Ficton, "Personality goes a long way". It's going to have to, because the money won't go far. The new austerity at St James Park means they're hunting for bargains this summer, young and old. So it's the promotion winning squad, slightly remixed. That should be enough to see them well clear of the bottom three, but there may be hard days to get through. Will they score enough goals ? Will the midfield, which dominated the Championship, be fit for purpose in the PL ? Defensively they were great last season, but can that unit survive the intense pressure it will come under in most PL matches ? That's all glass half empty stuff though and, as I said, I'm going with the idea that the glass is half full and that personality will go a long way. Long enough anyway.
3. WHATEVER HAPPENS TO SUNDERLAND, THEY DEFINITELY WON'T GET RELEGATED. Football's language of forward motion provides the script at the Stadium of Light. They need to be "moving on", "taking the next step", "making progress". OK, but quite how much progress they can make next season is an interesting question. Talk of a top ten finish is certainly reasonable, but talk of the Europa League might be a bit far-fetched. If we assume Chelsea, Man United and Arsenal are completely out of reach and Man City, Liverpool and Spurs are almost certainly out of reach, then in order to reach Europe, Sunderland are going to have to finish above Villa and Everton at the very least. It would take an almighty effort. It's not impossible, it just doesn't seem very likely and the transfer business hasn't set the pulse racing so far this summer. They should make progress, because the younger ones are more battle-hardened and there's no reason to think Darren Bent will stop scoring goals anytime soon. But progress won't necessarily mean a giant leap up the table. They just need to look more at home as an upwardly-mobile premier league side. Steve Bruce gave himself 6/10 for last season, but said it was so nearly an 8/10 campaign. I suspect he'll settle for a steady 7/10 this time round, and a cup run would be nice.


So the Big Three will be back this time next year, and I really hope Hartlepool will still be in League One. But I worry about them. The maths aren't good. A team that nearly got relegated + a few free agents = Another team that'll nearly (or actually) get relegated. I hope Darlington bounce straight back to the Football League, but I'm not holding my breath. Finally, I'd dearly love to see Sunderland, Newcastle, or even Boro, have a good run at one of the cups this year. Maybe, but probably not. Sunderland will certainly go for it, but I'm not certain how much either Newcastle or Boro will commit to the idea. The best thing about North East football though is that at least one part of what I've just said will be completely wrong. Something daft or unexpected always happens. That's why we love it.