14 days without twitter. Without newspapers. Without sky sports news. Without contacts. Without any sort of information at all concerning North East Football.
It was frustrating for about 48 hours. But then I started to see the value of some time away. Nothing but sunshine, all inclusive booze and a welcome chance to switch off the football engine and enjoy some time with my family.
And apart from the dicky tummy, I've loved it. It's cleared my head and recharged my batteries, which I now realise were in urgent need of recharging.
And the best thing is I'm back just in time for the start of the premier league season. Just in time to line up for the annual prediction parade.
While I've been enjoying my time away, I've been lying on sun beds and wondering how Sunderland and Newcastle United have spent their time away, and whether it's been time well spent.
The Magpies have certainly been busy. Busy selling one of their most influential players almost entirely for the sake of making a point. Busy chasing their other most influential player out of the door by all means available. Busy going on a glamourous but faintly disastrous tour of the USA. Busy pointing out that the return of two injured players was like having two extra new signings (a point that's been sledgehammered home at every opportunity) and busy dangerously over-hyping one of those players before he's really proved anything.
So, busy in some ways. But not especially busy in others. Not especially busy spending the now-mythical Andy Carroll money. So far 5 new players have arrived, although not at great expense, and only 4 are likely to figure in the first team. And, well, those 4 better be good otherwise Newcastle United's time away starts to look like an exercise in weakening rather than strengthening. Certainly team spirit can't have been strengthened by the twitterings of Joey Barton and (briefly) Jose Enrique.
But here's the thing, during my time away I read the book "Moneyball" and I can't help wondering if Mike Ashley read it on his holidays. Very briefly, the book is about how the Oakland A's, one of the poorest teams in baseball, managed to compete with the likes of the New York Yankees, who are the Manchester United of baseball. They did it by changing the way they scouted players and using detailed statistics to see qualities that others had missed. This gave them a group of rough diamonds, who didn't need massive wages, that the big clubs had never bothered with. Oakland had their team, the rough diamonds had the chance no one else was prepared to give them and if they went on to become stars, the A's turned a profit by letting them leave and replacing them with younger, rougher diamonds. There were no star names on big money because they couldn't afford them and they didn't fit the game plan anyway. Give or take the odd cultural sporting difference, that's Ashley's Newcastle United. I suppose it might work, but when it comes to predictions, you're whistling in the wind.
They might finish 7th if the Moneyball thing works. They might finish 20th if it doesn't. So there you are, I'm saying Newcastle will finish somewhere between 7th and 20th.
Sunderland have been busy during their time away. Absurdly busy for about a fortnight when they seemed to buy a player every half hour. This was no surprise. For one thing, Steve Bruce is actually more 'Arry than 'Arry when it comes to the transfer market. Also, he had no choice. The springtime collapse revealed some glaring weaknesses in his squad, injuries and mercenaries not withstanding. So during his time away Steve Bruce has set about addressing those weaknesses. The sad, but inevitable, departure of Jordan Henderson gave him room for manoeuvre and he's tried to play the market and manage the wage bill cleverly. It looks like good business, but the proof is in the pudding. They've been pretty average during pre-season (although that doesn't count for much) and they'll need to hit the ground running when the real stuff starts because their opening month is full of potential pitfalls.
But it's a little easier to predict Sunderland under Steve Bruce. Steady progress is his brief. That's what he's delivered so far and I see no reason to expect anything different this time. 7th is the glass ceiling in my opinion, but that would represent a big step and I think 8th or 9th is more realistic this year.
Hand on heart I can't see too much joy in the cups. Both Newcastle and Sunderland could afford to be a bit more serious about the knockouts and I can see improvements for both. But competition will be fierce, because Chelsea, Manchester City and especially Arsenal can't afford to leave empty-handed this season.
So our time away is over. We're back to reality and there's an early Derby to concentrate our hearts and minds. Whether you spent your time away relaxing, or rebuilding, or arguing amongst yourselves, I hope you enjoyed it. I hope it proves worthwhile.
I present the sport on ITV Tyne Tees and Border. Once, I was question number 3 on the picture round of the quiz at the Blue Bell in Fulwell. My mother was so proud.
Friday, 12 August 2011
Thursday, 11 August 2011
Maybe. Or maybe next year.
The glory of August for the football fan is the limitless possibility. The storylines are unwritten and everyone's glass is, or at least should be, half full. To me, the glass is definitely half full at Middlesbrough, slightly more than half full at Carlisle and edging towards three quarters full at Hartlepool. I'm just not sure anyone's glass is full enough to satisfy their thirst for a happy ending.
It's ironic that Juninho was back in town recently, to serve as a reminder of the good old days at Middlesbrough. The years when money was no object and a small town in Europe lifted a trophy and reached for the stars. It's ironic because a lot's changed since then. They're entering their 3rd year of exile from the top flight and the parachute won't open so far his time. Corners will be cut and new arrivals will be begged, borrowed or stolen rather than lavished with huge wages and signing on fees. But while the recent past no longer provides a useful reference point, a trip 25 years down memory lane is more instructive. It's the spirit of 86 that's needed now. That famous and much-loved team that took a football club from the brink of liquidation to promotion in the blink of an eye. That's the blueprint for the new austerity years at the Riverside. Of course Tony Mowbray provides the bridge between the two eras, and of course it would be just perfect for Mogga to fly Boro to the moon. Certainly they closed last season in dazzling form, and so far the squad is still in pretty good shape. But until the window closes they're vulnerable, and then there's the opposition, a subject I'll return to later.
My concern for Carlisle is basically to do with glass ceilings and where, precisely, theirs is located. Last season they finished mid-table in league one and won the JPT at Wembley. That represented a good years work. It also presents a big challenge for Greg Abbott and his staff, because now they're expected to do better. But how much better can they do ? The club is well run and on a sound financial footing after back to back Wembley trips, but that doesn't mean they can go toe to toe with the Sheffield clubs or Huddersfield in the transfer market. They can compete, but they need absolutely everything to fall in their favour in terms of signings, injuries, momentum and good luck. That's a lot to ask, and the highs of last season leave them with an awfully big act to follow.
I reckon Hartlepool smashed through their glass ceiling years ago. Every season they survive at this level is a minor miracle. But it also begs the question of whether they dare to dream of going higher. Well, whisper it quietly, but this might be their window of opportunity. #areyoucomingtopools was one of the hashtag highs of the summer. Hartlepool's innovative season ticket scheme proved to be a massive success and as a result they find themselves in a unique situation. Little old Pools will have a formidable home crowd behind them next season, which could generate the momentum for something unlikely and something wonderful. And why not, with Nobby Solano sat in the middle conducting the orchestra ?
But then we come back to the question of the opposition. This is where my glass suddenly dips from half full to half empty. In league one, can Carlisle and Hartlepool really live with the Sheffields ? Can they keep up with Clarkie's Huddersfield ? Preston ? And those are just the obvious ones. It's even worse for Boro up in the championship. Sven's Leicester are the big spenders. Big Sam and Big Kev Nolan will get the Hammers moving. Steve McClaren might just remind the Teesside public what a good manager he is over at Forest. Olly's Blackpool look keen to prove that whole Premier League thing wasn't a fluke. Chris Hughton might repeat his Magpie Miracle at Birmingham and the usual suspects like Burnley, Reading and Cardiff won't be far away. I've got a sneaking fancy for Brighton in their new stadium as well.
It's a jungle out there in the football league this season and I'm not 100% convinced our boys can live with the big beasts.
But I haven't given up hope. There's always a few tales of the unexpected and remember, it's still August. The storylines haven't been written yet and the lush, green, summer pitches are still rich with possibility.
It's ironic that Juninho was back in town recently, to serve as a reminder of the good old days at Middlesbrough. The years when money was no object and a small town in Europe lifted a trophy and reached for the stars. It's ironic because a lot's changed since then. They're entering their 3rd year of exile from the top flight and the parachute won't open so far his time. Corners will be cut and new arrivals will be begged, borrowed or stolen rather than lavished with huge wages and signing on fees. But while the recent past no longer provides a useful reference point, a trip 25 years down memory lane is more instructive. It's the spirit of 86 that's needed now. That famous and much-loved team that took a football club from the brink of liquidation to promotion in the blink of an eye. That's the blueprint for the new austerity years at the Riverside. Of course Tony Mowbray provides the bridge between the two eras, and of course it would be just perfect for Mogga to fly Boro to the moon. Certainly they closed last season in dazzling form, and so far the squad is still in pretty good shape. But until the window closes they're vulnerable, and then there's the opposition, a subject I'll return to later.
My concern for Carlisle is basically to do with glass ceilings and where, precisely, theirs is located. Last season they finished mid-table in league one and won the JPT at Wembley. That represented a good years work. It also presents a big challenge for Greg Abbott and his staff, because now they're expected to do better. But how much better can they do ? The club is well run and on a sound financial footing after back to back Wembley trips, but that doesn't mean they can go toe to toe with the Sheffield clubs or Huddersfield in the transfer market. They can compete, but they need absolutely everything to fall in their favour in terms of signings, injuries, momentum and good luck. That's a lot to ask, and the highs of last season leave them with an awfully big act to follow.
I reckon Hartlepool smashed through their glass ceiling years ago. Every season they survive at this level is a minor miracle. But it also begs the question of whether they dare to dream of going higher. Well, whisper it quietly, but this might be their window of opportunity. #areyoucomingtopools was one of the hashtag highs of the summer. Hartlepool's innovative season ticket scheme proved to be a massive success and as a result they find themselves in a unique situation. Little old Pools will have a formidable home crowd behind them next season, which could generate the momentum for something unlikely and something wonderful. And why not, with Nobby Solano sat in the middle conducting the orchestra ?
But then we come back to the question of the opposition. This is where my glass suddenly dips from half full to half empty. In league one, can Carlisle and Hartlepool really live with the Sheffields ? Can they keep up with Clarkie's Huddersfield ? Preston ? And those are just the obvious ones. It's even worse for Boro up in the championship. Sven's Leicester are the big spenders. Big Sam and Big Kev Nolan will get the Hammers moving. Steve McClaren might just remind the Teesside public what a good manager he is over at Forest. Olly's Blackpool look keen to prove that whole Premier League thing wasn't a fluke. Chris Hughton might repeat his Magpie Miracle at Birmingham and the usual suspects like Burnley, Reading and Cardiff won't be far away. I've got a sneaking fancy for Brighton in their new stadium as well.
It's a jungle out there in the football league this season and I'm not 100% convinced our boys can live with the big beasts.
But I haven't given up hope. There's always a few tales of the unexpected and remember, it's still August. The storylines haven't been written yet and the lush, green, summer pitches are still rich with possibility.
Happy Endings
Everyone loves a happy ending. They were there, last season, if you looked carefully enough. Some were obvious, like Darlington and their FA Trophy, or Carlisle and their Johnstone's Paint Pot. Some were more subtle, like Tony Mowbray's gradual reawakening of Middlesbrough and Hartlepool's refusal to get drawn into a relegation battle. But everyone had something to look back on with satisfaction. Sunderland's happy ending came in the form of a top ten finish. Of course they went all round the houses to get there, but Steve Bruce will tell you ultimately that doesn't matter. They found unlikely heroes (Phil Bardsley) and there were pantomime villains (dastardly Darren Bent) and they finally found what they were looking for in the dying moments of the season. The great irony of course was that the Black Cats got the top ten finish that looked for all the world as if it was destined for Newcastle. But the Magpies needn't dwell on the denouement. Their happy ending was much more straightforward and was achieved with time to spare. They reestablished themselves as a premier league club. They were never dragged into the dogfight and, well, they'll always have Halloween. The sale of Andy Carroll was, sadly, inevitable, while the departure of Chris Hughton and the arrival of Alan Pardew remains a mysterious footnote. Everyone must make up their own mind as to whether they've got the right man, or whether they got rid of the right man. Boro HAVE got the right man. That's their happy ending. They kissed a frog, but they found their prince. Strachan was the sickness. Mowbray is their home-grown cure. A managerial change also defined Hartlepool's campaign. Chris Turner, who'd done so much at Victoria Park, finally got tired of the struggle. Mick Wadsworth became a sort of permanent caretaker and while mid-table mediocrity might not seem like the happiest of endings, it was actually a splendid achievement. Carlisle had another season of steady improvement under Greg Abbott and Peter Murphy's Wembley winner was Boy's Own stuff. Mark Cooper managed to sort out the unholy mess he inherited at Darlington and ended up with a Trophy for good measure. Gateshead were much-improved in their first modern season as a full time football club and Gary Mills arrived in time to steady the ship at York. So there you are. Everyone ended up smiling. Everyone loves a happy ending. True, we went through a lot of shit to get there, but what's life without little drama ?
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